Energy Outlook
The DOE Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2006 presents a forecast and analysis of U.S. energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030. This selection of projections is based on results from the EIA’s National Energy Modeling System.
Current projections anticipate U.S. energy demands to increase by more than one-third by 2030, with electricity demand alone rising by more than 40 percent.
Total primary energy consumption, including energy for electricity generation, grows by 1.1 percent per year from 2004 to 2030, with fossil fuels accounting for 88 percent of the growth. Coal use will increase by 53 percent, petroleum by 34 percent, and natural gas by 20 percent over that same period. More than one half of the increase in coal consumption is expected after 2020, when higher natural gas prices will make coal the fuel choice for most new power plants.
Despite technology improvements, rising fossil fuel costs, and public support, the contribution of renewable fuels to U.S. electricity supply remains relatively small–at 9.4 percent of total generation in 2030, up from 9 percent in 2004.
By customer sector, electricity demand will grow by 75 percent from 2004 to 2030 in the commercial sector, by 47 percent in the residential sector, and by 24 percent in the industrial sector.
Efficiency gains are expected in both the residential and commercial sectors as a result of new standards in EPAct 2005 and higher energy prices that prompt more investment in energy-efficient equipment.
On the Web
www.architecture2030.org
www.clintonglobalinitiative.org
www.doe.gov
www.eleek.com
www.energyaction.net
www.energystar.gov
www.epa.gov
www.iald.org
www.iesna.org
www.mbdc.com
www.nglia.org
www.usgbc.org
www.vode.com