CHRISTOPHER B. LEINBERGER
Introduced in the early 20th century, the low-density, car-oriented suburb was a new way of developing the built environment. Americans loved the space and privacy that it offered, and we in real estate gave the market what it wanted. So much so that, after World War II, the U.S. government put in place de facto domestic policies (like home loans under the G.I. Bill) that made this the largest social engineering experiment in American history.
But in the 1990s, the consumer began to change. The so-called Millennials, raised on urban entertainment like Seinfeld and Friends, want something other than car-dependent suburbia. What they want, but find in short supply, is walkable urbanism. The dearth of walkable urban options has resulted in huge price premiums in such areas, even those that were slums 30 years ago—a process otherwise known as gentrification.
These places have held their value in the housing meltdown, while fringe suburbs have collapsed. When the smoke clears, it might be that this financial nightmare was sparked by building too much of the wrong product—i.e., drivable suburban developments—on the outskirts of our metro areas, the next slums.
But it does not mean the death of the suburbs. It means the transformation of some suburbs. The Washington, D.C., area is a model for where America is heading, with about six significant walkable urban places per million people. And most of these places are in the suburbs: There is Dupont Circle, but also Reston, Va., and Bethesda, Md. In Los Angeles metro, there are currently 13 to 15 walkable urban places; there will probably be 20 to 30 more before long, representing tens of billions of dollars of development. Where will they be? Mostly in the suburbs, following the ever-expanding rail system.
High energy costs are accelerating, not driving, the transformation of the suburbs. However, energy costs will only get higher as we address climate change. Fortunately, transforming the suburbs will offer a major solution to climate change and the problem of energy security. Walkable urban households use one-third of the energy and emit one-third of the greenhouse gases of households in car-based suburbia.
There’s nothing like giving the market what it wants while solving the great challenge of our age.
Christopher B. Leinberger is a developer and a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution.